Unless you work for a hedge fund or a bookie, predictions for the coming year don't add up to squat. It's a useful way to fill copy, though, so as a relentless copywhore I'm going to list some of mine.
I've got to admit that these are an equal shot of glorious optimism and black pessimism, but it's all about the pith. You might be interested in reading Dave Clarke's for something thoughtful (though I'd say that his are just as much wishful thinking as mine).
The Death of Sushi House
Quite a bit of new House Music (broadly defined) is being made for home listening, not for the club. I don't really see this changing (nor should it: the best shot at broadening the fanbase is making music that exists outside of nosecandy happyhour), but the monotonous, so-tribal-we're-wearing-animal-skins trend for Deep House has run its course.
Snowflake Becomes Blizzard
We're gonna see more releases than ever by people you've never heard of, largely consisting of looped instrumental beats and cheap FX. Francis Ford Coppola once predicted that cheap high-quality consumer cameras would lead everyone to being a director. I see the same thing happening in music, with the difference that hacks with a Sony Digicam don't have the cheek to sell their youtube videos for $1.99 each.
The torrent of product in 2010 will lead to things we've been noticing for the last two years: the death of the hit record and a price approaching zero.
On the first count, there's so much nebulous product lacking distinction that it could be entirely possible for DJ sets and mixes to become utterly unique, without the possibility of duplication. I have no idea if this is good or bad or if it's advisable to tag it with one or the other.
On the second, it's very likely that a large number of producers who currently have a day job and are making fuck'all selling their music will just throw open their catalog for free. I don't mean for promotion, or an unreleased mix, or songs that they just wouldn't get around to releasing anyway. I mean everything they do will be released for free.
Really, if you're clocking $100 for a track and get some decent press but inching no closer to fame, what's the difference to you? The music probably won't be anything a DJ would consider a must-have (at least not in the beginning), but the market won't be able to absorb a large amount of product priced at $0.00 for long. Some are already doing this but I see free music becoming a genre almost unto itself.
More Crossover Production
Hip-Hop producers have been using House beats for awhile, but we'll see more cross-genre collaborations than ever before. I don't mean remixing pop songs or sampling but straight-up two-guys-or-gals-in-a-studio collaborations.
One Hit Wonders Will Still Have Delusions of Entitlement and Relevance
Welcome to Chicago, where you can't throw a rock without hitting someone that had a minor hit record in 1986. This item is on the verge of just becoming a polemical rant, but if you're a producer that hasen't released a record in 10 years, you're an Oldie. You're not in the music industry: you used to be in the music industry. And you're currently on the outside looking in over a fence that's so low that you could skip over it, if you had the desire.
That might sound harsh but I can't imagine that the guys from Strawberry Alarm Clock are under the delusion that they're "owed" the cover of Rolling Stone in 2010. Or Vanilla Ice.
Music is easier to make and release than ever before. There's no excuse for having a catalog covered in dust, not anymore. Many of the original Chicago artists with a record on Trax or DJ International spend more time looking to relive their past via bullshit press release than they do making music. It's bullshit when there are hundreds of people making great music but can't trade on their name with the naive and unknowing.
If you want to separate the industry from the oldies, here's what you do: ask for a copy of their latest track. If they can't immediately produce it, run. We have to deal with these legends-in-their-own-mind every.single.day. It's sad that people outside Chicago get seduced by the hype and, more often than not, suckered.
